2006-based subnational population projections: Analysis

The latest demography report commissioned by the South East England Regional Assembly provides a top level analysis of the 2006-based Office for National Statistics (ONS) sub-national population projections (SNPP). This is the ninth in a series of regular reports commissioned by the Assembly from the Greater London Authority. Earlier reports are available via the 'Read More' link below.

The 2006 SNPP are the first to consider solely recent international migration (2001-06) prepared under the new methodology introduced by ONS last year.

The 2006 SNPP are also constrained to the results of the 2006-based population projections for England. In particular, this means that the latest national assumptions showing higher feritlity rates, higher life expectancy and more net migration to England have been included. As a result, England's population is projected to be 60.4 million in 2031 compared to 56.8 million under the 2004-based projections.

At mid-2006, the population of the South East was estimated at 8.2 million. In the latest projections, it is set to grow to 9.5 million by 2026 and 9.8 million by 2031. The new projected population at 2026 is 412,000 more than in the previous 2004-based projections.

Between 2006 and 2031, the highest levels of growth are projected at ages over 60, with the highest rate seen in the 85+ group (129%). Small losses are anticipated in the two groups spanning 40-49 years. This is mainly a product of 40-49 year olds in 2006 having been born in the high fertility years 1956-66, set against the much lower fertiliy period of 1976-86 twenty years later.

Although the South East is projected to be only the fifth fastest growing region in percentage terms from 2006 to 2031 at 19.1% (marginally above the rate for England), it is set for the highest absolute population growth as a share of all regions (16.3% or 1.6 million people)

The latest, revised 2004-based Communities and Local Government (CLG) household-projections show a rise in the total number of households in the region from 3.45 million in 2006 to 4.16 million in 2026. When the number of households are recalculated by introducing the new 2006 SNPP projections, the results imply that households could grow to 4.25 million in 2026 - a growth of 793,000 households from 2004 or nearly 40,000 a year.

 

Dated 09/07/2008

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Owning Organisation

South East England Regional Assembly - http://www.southeast-ra.gov.uk

Data Type

Research Report

Spatial Coverage

Regional, Counties and Local authorities

Theme

Society